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Configure parameters, then run the simulator

Default profile shown: age-65 retiree, $80k/yr spending, US, 30-year horizon.

Maximum Sustainable Real Spending computing…

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PER YEAR · AFTER-TAX · REAL (INFLATION-ADJUSTED)

Withdrawal rate—

Confidence target—

Horizon (years)—

Initial portfolio—

Largest constant real annual spend such that the portfolio value in the terminal (final) year of the horizon is not less than zero, at the stated confidence level. Iterative bracket-and-binary search over the same tax-optimized withdrawal engine. After-tax and inflation-adjusted; consume this as today's purchasing power.

Spend assumption for all other tabs: —
The terminal P50/P90, success rate, lifetime tax, schedule, sensitivity, and composition tabs are all conditional on this spending level — not on the SWR above.

Median Lifetime Tax (Fed + State/Prov)

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Success Rate (at your input spend)

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Terminal Wealth · P50

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Worst-Decile Floor

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10th-percentile terminal

Portfolio Wealth · Confidence Fan

Real (inflation-adjusted) total portfolio value across simulations. Bands: 10–90th and 20–80th percentile. Solid line: median path. [Monte Carlo, N sims]

Lifetime Tax · Distribution

Histogram of cumulative federal tax paid across all simulation paths.

Annual Tax · Median Path

Year-by-year tax bill along the median wealth path.

Tax Percentile Summary

Account Composition · Median Path

How each bucket depletes over the median trajectory. Tax-optimized sequencing fills low brackets from tax-deferred accounts first, preserving tax-free buckets.

Median Withdrawal Schedule

Year-by-year median gross withdrawal, source breakdown, tax paid, and ending balance.

Tornado · Lifetime Tax Sensitivity

One-at-a-time perturbation (±10%) of each parameter, holding all others constant. Bars show change in median lifetime tax. Drives the Pareto frontier of which levers matter.

Safe Withdrawal Rate · Confidence Frontier

Highest constant real (after-tax, after-inflation) annual spending such that the terminal-year portfolio value is ≥ 0, computed across confidence levels from 50% to 99%. The steeper the curve at your operating point, the more spending you sacrifice per unit of additional safety.

Methodology, Assumptions, and Antithesis